When will AGI be achieved?

Predictions vary widely. Some researchers predict AGI by 2027-2030, while others place it decades away. Future Shock tracks these predictions to show where consensus is forming.

Who predicts AGI timelines?

AGI timeline predictions come from AI researchers, lab leaders, independent forecasters, and prediction markets like Metaculus.

57 Predictions · Live Tracking

Prediction Tracker

Public AI predictions tracked against outcomes. Who called it, who missed, and where the consensus is heading. Everyone predicts. Few keep score. Our methodology.

Pending

Open source will overtake closed source as most-used AI models

Prediction Tracker

Taiwan chips are the single biggest point of failure for the world economy

Google mostly catches up to OpenAI in LLM quality

AI-generated sludge outcompetes digital media for ad dollars

Romantic relationships with AI companions increase sharply

Meta kills celebrity-based AI characters

SWE-Bench Verified reaches 85% by mid-2025

AI agents will join the workforce in 2025

Open source will overtake closed source as most-used AI models

AI smarter than the smartest human by 2025 or 2026

AI smarter than humans in many domains

The AI culture war begins in 2025

The first year of the agentic era mostly disappoints

OpenAI officially declares they have achieved AGI in 2025

X (Twitter) will be merged into xAI

No artificial general intelligence in 2025, despite claims by Elon Musk

AI agents will be endlessly hyped but far from reliable in 2025, except in narrow use cases

China achieves AI application parity with US by 2025

A new crypto meme coin briefly reaches $100B market cap

Apple acquires Snap

AI model profits remain modest or nonexistent in 2025

US will have very little AI regulation protecting consumers in 2025

Hallucinations continue to haunt generative AI in 2025

Humanoid robotics: lots of hype, nothing close to Rosie the Robot in 2025

Less than 10% of workforce replaced by AI in 2025

Few if any radiologists replaced by AI in 2025

OpenAI annualized revenue hits $18B by end of 2025

EU AI Act high-risk system compliance enforcement begins August 2026

AI will write most of Meta's code within 18 months

Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026

16+ becomes the new norm for social media accounts worldwide

AI companies train models that begin to automate AI research itself by 2026

AGI (country of geniuses) ~50% by 2026-2027

Multi-Domain AGI by October 2027

World models will be the dominant AI architecture within 3-5 years

Most claimed AI breakthroughs in social science will not be reproducible

By 2027, AI agents can fully automate the work of an AI researcher given appropriate tools

China will be ready to take Taiwan by 2027

Full coding automation by 2027

AI creates measurable white-collar productivity gains within 3 years

AGI will be achieved within 5 years (by ~2028)

50% probability of minimal AGI by 2028

US will have a Manhattan Project-scale national AI program by 2027-2028

Level 4 autonomous vehicles operating in 10+ US cities by 2028

International AI governance body with binding authority established by 2028

AI becomes a bigger political issue than abortion or climate change by 2028

Superintelligence could happen this decade

AGI will not be achieved by 2029

AGI by 2029

AGI will emerge in 5 to 10 years (from 2025)

15% chance of transformative AI by 2030

Superintelligence possible within a few thousand days

Massive knowledge work displacement within a decade

AI will compress a century of biological progress into a decade

AI will add less than 1% to US GDP growth over the next decade

35% chance of transformative AI by 2036

50% chance of transformative AI by 2040

Technological singularity by 2045