PendingtimelineConfidence: 50%
50% chance of transformative AI by 2040
Ajeya Cotra estimated a 50% probability of transformative AI by 2040 based on compute-centric forecasting frameworks.
Source: Ajeya CotraClaimed: 2022-08-11Target: 2040-12-31
View source ↗transformative-aicomputetimeline