PendingtimelineConfidence: 50%

50% chance of transformative AI by 2040

Ajeya Cotra estimated a 50% probability of transformative AI by 2040 based on compute-centric forecasting frameworks.

Source: Ajeya CotraClaimed: 2022-08-11Target: 2040-12-31
View source ↗
transformative-aicomputetimeline

Free daily briefing on what actually matters in AI.