PendingtimelineConfidence: 80%
AI smarter than the smartest human by 2025 or 2026
Musk predicted that AI would be smarter than the smartest human "probably by next year, or by 2026" in an April 2024 statement. He later revised to predict AGI by 2026 via xAI. Note: confidence is editorial estimate, Musk did not state a specific probability.
Source: Elon MuskClaimed: 2024-04-08Target: 2026-12-31 – 2026-12-31
View source ↗agixaigrok
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Original prediction said 2025 or 2026. 2025 passed without AGI claim from any major lab. Extended deadline to Dec 2026 per the original statement.