2023-03 → Present
The AI takeoff is happening.
We're measuring it.
Future Shock maps the accelerating trajectory of artificial intelligence — across models, compute, robotics, research, and open source. Updated daily. No hype. No financial advice. Just the signal.
Six Tracking Axes
The dimensions of accelerationModel Capability
Benchmarks, multimodal, agents, context windows, tool use
Compute & Chips
GPU releases, FLOPs/dollar, training clusters, energy
Robotics
Humanoid milestones, autonomous deployments, LLM-driven demos
Research Velocity
arXiv publication rate, breakthrough papers, citation velocity
Open Source
GitHub commit velocity, AI co-authored code, framework growth
Policy
Government action, regulation, defense, trade, AI governance
Latest Signals
Updated dailyA profile of UC Berkeley professor Hany Farid, the world's leading digital forensics expert for 20+ years, who says he is now struggling to identify AI fakes (New York Times)
New York Times : A profile of UC Berkeley professor Hany Farid, the world's leading digital forensics expert for 20+ years, who says he is now struggling to identify AI fakes — The emails began to arrive on a Sunday morning, as the worst ones often did. Hany Farid opened the first message at his home …
Sources: ByteDance is in talks with Shanghai-based Iluvatar CoreX to purchase AI inference GPUs, and is also considering a deal to buy Baidu's Kunlunxin chips (Reuters)
Reuters : Sources: ByteDance is in talks with Shanghai-based Iluvatar CoreX to purchase AI inference GPUs, and is also considering a deal to buy Baidu's Kunlunxin chips — Chinese technology company ByteDance is in talks with Shanghai-based Iluvatar CoreX (9903.HK) to purchase AI chips for inference work …
As Anthropic suspends access to new models, India debates its AI future
Tech leaders debate whether the Anthropic episode is a wake-up call for India’s AI ambitions.
US export controls on Anthropic reignite debate in India over the country's AI ambitions, which are increasingly tied to tech developed and governed in the US (Jagmeet Singh/TechCrunch)
Jagmeet Singh / TechCrunch : US export controls on Anthropic reignite debate in India over the country's AI ambitions, which are increasingly tied to tech developed and governed in the US — Anthropic's sudden move to suspend access to its newest AI models following a U.S. government directive has raised fresh questions across the global technology industry.
Q&A with labor researcher Molly Kinder on her recent, widely discussed "Messy Middle" essay on AI-driven disruption of knowledge jobs and how to address it (Casey Newton/Platformer)
Casey Newton / Platformer : Q&A with labor researcher Molly Kinder on her recent, widely discussed “Messy Middle” essay on AI-driven disruption of knowledge jobs and how to address it — Brookings Institution researcher Molly Kinder on why she's leaving her job to create solution for AI's “messy middle.”
Satya Nadella says companies must own their AI "learning loops" to compound human and token capital, or risk ceding all value to a handful of frontier models (Satya Nadella/@satyanadella)
Satya Nadella / @satyanadella : Satya Nadella says companies must own their AI “learning loops” to compound human and token capital, or risk ceding all value to a handful of frontier models — I've been thinking a lot about the future of the firm in an AI-driven economy. This transition is different than any previous platform shift.
Featured Essays
Durable Future Shock pieces from the newsletter archive: agent coordination, AI infrastructure, security, and the systems around the models.
Capabilities
The Race to AGI
A grounded read on why the AGI race keeps producing worse incentives than the models themselves.
Coordination
The Primer Prediction
A sci-fi lens for agent handoffs, memory, and the fragile little rituals that make autonomy usable.
Agents
When Your Swarm Disagrees
What multi-agent systems reveal when the hard part is not intelligence, but disagreement.
Systems
The Scaffolding Is the Intelligence
Why the boring layers around models often matter more than the model leaderboard headline.
Infrastructure
The Cloud Has a Physical Address
A reminder that AI's abstractions still cash out in land, power, water, chips, and jurisdiction.
Security
The Security Industry Is Solving the Wrong Problem
A cleaner frame for why agentic systems need authority boundaries, not just better vibes around risk.
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