2023-03 → Present
The AI takeoff is happening.
We're measuring it.
Future Shock maps the accelerating trajectory of artificial intelligence — across models, compute, robotics, research, and open source. Updated daily. No hype. No financial advice. Just the signal.
Six Tracking Axes
The dimensions of accelerationModel Capability
Benchmarks, multimodal, agents, context windows, tool use
Compute & Chips
GPU releases, FLOPs/dollar, training clusters, energy
Robotics
Humanoid milestones, autonomous deployments, LLM-driven demos
Research Velocity
arXiv publication rate, breakthrough papers, citation velocity
Open Source
GitHub commit velocity, AI co-authored code, framework growth
Policy
Government action, regulation, defense, trade, AI governance
Latest Signals
Updated dailyttok 1.0
<p><strong>Release:</strong> <a href="https://github.com/simonw/ttok/releases/tag/1.0">ttok 1.0</a></p> <p>I released <a href="https://simonwillison.net/2026/Oct/8/ttok/">ttok 0.4</a>, ran <code>uv tool upgrade ttok</code>, piped a file into the new version... and realized that it was defaulting to the GPT-4 tokenizer when it should very clearly default to GPT-5/GPT-6 instead!</p> <p>I figured switching the default was a reasonable excuse to finally ship a 1.0.</p> <p>OpenAI haven't actually con [Editorial context 2026-10-09: October 9 ttok 1.0 release is author-confirmed; a small tokenizer-default change, not a frontier-model launch. GPT-6 tokenizer compatibility is inferred from limited test fixtures; author explicitly says OpenAI has not confirmed it. No independent compatibility guarantee.]
Anthropic is setting up a "presidential engagement" program for the 2028 US elections that will offer AI policy education to candidates in both parties (Emily Forlini/Fortune)
Emily Forlini / Fortune : Anthropic is setting up a “presidential engagement” program for the 2028 US elections that will offer AI policy education to candidates in both parties — Anthropic is setting up a “presidential engagement” program ahead of the 2028 elections, building an in-house team … [Editorial context 2026-10-09: Fortune October 8 reporting and Anthropic-hosted Greenhouse job description verify hiring to BUILD a 2028 presidential engagement program, bipartisan candidate education and political-giving operations. This is a documented plan/job, not proof candidate meetings have occurred, legal compliance independently audited, or influence achieved. Job has no inspected original posting date. No election-outcome or hidden-motive assertions; omit IPO/valuation wrapper.]
AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners | Fed in Print
AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners | Fed in Print About Contact RSS Latest System wide Board of Governors Atlanta Boston Chicago Cleveland Dallas Kansas City Minneapolis New York Philadelphia Richmond St. Louis San Francisco API Fed in Print All All Title Author Abstract Browse Bank Series Content Type Author JEL Classification Discussion Paper AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners Abstract: [Search snippet: Abstract: <strong>There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment</strong>. Economy-wide measures of pay and headcount have moved little even as AI adoption has spread rapidly, yet narrower measures document declining hiring for workers at the start of their careers or in AI-exposed occupations.] [Editorial context 2026-10-09: New York Fed October 8 analysis of the September-November 2025 SBCS AI module, not fresh 2026 survey fieldwork. AI users report stronger 12-month employment/revenue expectations; this is association and anticipated hiring, NOT observed AI-caused job creation. 5,248 employer-firm module respondents; no independent replication. Full allowed body distinguishes 4,769 controlled employment observations and 4,698 controlled revenue observations; adjusted expectation differences are not measured hiring outcomes.]
AI banned for all students in Frederick County Public Schools
Frederick County schools ban AI for students in all grades Skip to content By Sarah Rubinstein | Frederick News-Post PUBLISHED: October 8, 2026 at 12:28 PM EDT | UPDATED: October 8, 2026 at 7:11 PM EDT Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Members had been considering a ban only for younger grades until teachers and the student board member pushed to go further. The policy still allows exceptions for AI literacy. Subscribe to continue reading this article. Already subscribed? To log in, cli [Search snippet: <strong>Frederick County Board of Education voted 6-1 to ban AI for pre-K through 12th grade students, with exceptions for AI literacy and IEPs</strong>.] [Editorial context 2026-10-09: Supporting duplicate of event web-frederick-county-school-board-votes-to-ban-ai-use-for-pre-k-. Reporting says Maryland Frederick County board voted 6-1 October 7 to restrict pre-K–12 student AI use, with AI-literacy/curricular and disability accommodations. Not an absolute all-use ban; implementation still being determined. Primary hunt did not recover controlling policy; do not confuse Virginia Frederick County board.]
California employers must disclose AI-driven job cuts under new law
California employers must disclose AI-driven job cuts under new law ✕ Login / Signup IN Strategy Talent Acquisition Rewards & Performance Culture Technology L&D Events Podcast Research Videos Find us: California employers must disclose AI-driven job cuts under new law 10/6/2026 • By Ria Duneja California employers will have to provide detailed information when artificial intelligence or automated technology contributes to mass layoffs, under a new law signed on 30 September 2026. Senate Bill 951 [Search snippet: <strong>California employers will have to provide detailed information when artificial intelligence or automated technology contributes to mass layoffs</strong>, under a new law signed on 30 September 2026.] [Editorial context 2026-10-09: Stale September 30 SB 951 signing, effective January 1, 2027, not a current all-employer reporting mandate. Littler legal analysis and other legal-source search results agree that covered Cal-WARN reductions caused in whole or substantial part by AI/automation require added disclosures; existing coverage/notice framework unchanged. January 2028 EDD study is not an already-enacted hiring-freeze reporting duty. Primary bill located but REQUIRE_APPROVAL blocked inspection: legal-summary qualification, not primary statute verification. Prior October 4 DB row web-california-amends-its-warn-act-again-littler already tracks same amendment. [STALE — original/source date: 2026-09-30; event ID: web-california-amends-its-warn-act-again-littler. Source date is not ingestion date.]]
FDA puts final AI device lifecycle guidance at top of its 2027 priorities | World Health AI
FDA puts final AI device lifecycle guidance at top of its 2027 priorities | World Health AI Skip to content ← All insights Healthcare · 7 October 2026 FDA puts final AI device lifecycle guidance at top of its 2027 priorities The agency also plans to draft evidence recommendations for generative AI conversational devices for mental disorders, and takes comments until Nov. 30. By World Health AI Editorial 1 source The US Food and Drug Administration published its fiscal 2027 guidance priorities fo [Search snippet: ... The US Food and Drug Administration ... coming 12 months, the FDA's top priorities include <strong>finalising guidance on marketing submissions and lifecycle management for AI-enabled devices, and drafting advice on generative AI</strong> 1....] [Editorial context 2026-10-09: FDA FY2027 priority-list PDF confirms AI device lifecycle final-guidance topic and draft generative-AI conversational-device evidence recommendations for mental disorders. Agenda, not issued final guidance, a binding new rule, or FDA approval. October 1 agenda reported October 2; stale relative to October 9 ingestion. Distinguish general-device PCCP topic from prior AI-specific PCCP guidance. [STALE — original/source date: 2026-10-01; event ID: web-fda-puts-final-ai-device-lifecycle-guidance-at-top-of-its-20. Source date is not ingestion date.]]
Featured Essays
Durable Future Shock pieces from the newsletter archive: agent coordination, AI infrastructure, security, and the systems around the models.
Work
The K-Curve
The widening gap between people who compound value from AI and those who tried it once and bounced.
Open source
The Quantization Underground
How a four-line experiment changed the way small AI models are compressed and run locally.
Coordination
We Made AI Agents Negotiate the End of the World
The same model behaved differently depending on which other agents were in the room.
Agents
The (Missing) Layer Between You and Your Agents
What is missing between the agents doing the work and the person trying to understand what happened.
Infrastructure
The Grid Under the Cloud
The next decade of AI will be shaped by the places that can power, cool, permit, and physically host it.
Accountability
Promise Nothing, Claim Everything
Six competing AI companies arrived at remarkably similar terms for warranties, liability, and training data.
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