Question 1

Who has the most accurate AI predictions?

Accepted Answer

Future Shock tracks prediction accuracy for AI researchers, lab leaders, and forecasters. Accuracy is measured by resolved predictions (correct vs wrong) with boldness (average confidence) as a tiebreaker.

Question 2

When do experts predict AGI will arrive?

Accepted Answer

Current predictions range from 2025 to 2045+. Musk and Amodei predict 2025-2027, Huang and Legg target 2028, Hassabis says 2030-2035, and Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029 with singularity by 2045.

Question 3

How does Future Shock track AI prediction accuracy?

Accepted Answer

Each public prediction is cataloged with source, date, confidence level, and target date. When predictions resolve, we score accuracy and update the leaderboard. Boldness (average confidence) serves as a tiebreaker between predictors with equal accuracy.

#	Predictor	Record	Accuracy	Boldness	Notable Prediction
1	Gary Marcus	8/0/1	100%	81%	No artificial general intelligence in 2025, despite claims by Elon Musk
2	Sam Altman	1/0/1	100%	75%	AI agents will join the workforce in 2025
3	Geoffrey Hinton	1/0/1	100%	73%	AI smarter than humans in many domains
4	Casey Newton	5/1/1	83%	67%	Google mostly catches up to OpenAI in LLM quality
5	Daniel Kokotajlo	1/1/3	50%	63%	OpenAI annualized revenue hits $18B by end of 2025
6	Ray Kurzweil	0/0/2	--	80%	AGI by 2029
7	Mark Zuckerberg	0/0/2	--	73%	AI will write most of Meta's code within 18 months
8	Dario Amodei	0/0/3	--	67%	Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026
9	Kevin Roose	0/3/0	0%	50%	A new crypto meme coin briefly reaches $100B market cap
10	Ajeya Cotra	0/0/3	--	33%	50% chance of transformative AI by 2040

Prediction Scoreboard

AGI Timeline Predictions

Market Signals