Calibration
Calibration Dashboard
How well-calibrated is the Future Shock prediction engine? This page shows diagnostic metrics, calibration curves, and accuracy breakdowns.
Lower Brier score = better calibration. Perfect = 0.
Overall Metrics
Brier Score
0.161
25 scored predictions
Log Score
-0.791
Higher is better
Resolved
25 / 59
34 pending · 0 withdrawn
Accuracy
68.0%
17 correct · 6 wrong · 2 partial
Calibration Curve
Bars should align with the dots. Bars above = overconfident. Below = underconfident.
Signal Performance
| Signal | Brier | Resolved | Snapshots | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No resolved predictions with market signals yet. | ||||
| PDM (Prerequisite Density) | No snapshots yet | |||
Accuracy by Category
Recent Resolutions
Open source will overtake closed source as most-used AI models
60% confidence · Resolved 2026-03-06
China achieves AI application parity with US by 2025
60% confidence · Resolved 2026-03-06
No artificial general intelligence in 2025, despite claims by Elon Musk
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Hallucinations continue to haunt generative AI in 2025
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Less than 10% of workforce replaced by AI in 2025
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Few if any radiologists replaced by AI in 2025
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
The AI culture war begins in 2025
90% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
AI agents will be endlessly hyped but far from reliable in 2025, except in narrow use cases
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
AI model profits remain modest or nonexistent in 2025
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
US will have very little AI regulation protecting consumers in 2025
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31