Calibration
Calibration Dashboard
How well-calibrated is the Future Shock prediction engine? This page shows diagnostic metrics, calibration curves, and accuracy breakdowns.
Lower Brier score = better calibration. Perfect = 0.
Overall Metrics
Brier Score
0.121
56 scored predictions
Log Score
-0.629
Higher is better
Resolved
56 / 227
170 pending · 1 withdrawn
Accuracy
46.4%
26 correct · 24 wrong · 6 partial
Calibration Curve
Bars should align with the dots. Bars above = overconfident. Below = underconfident.
Signal Performance
| Signal | Brier | Resolved | Snapshots | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| manifold | 0.028 | 33 | 211 | 51% |
| PDM (Prerequisite Density) | No snapshots yet | |||
Accuracy by Category
Recent Resolutions
AI agents will join the workforce in 2025
80% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
AI smarter than humans in many domains
75% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
The AI culture war begins in 2025
90% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
No artificial general intelligence in 2025, despite claims by Elon Musk
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
AI agents will be endlessly hyped but far from reliable in 2025, except in narrow use cases
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
AI model profits remain modest or nonexistent in 2025
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
US will have very little AI regulation protecting consumers in 2025
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Hallucinations continue to haunt generative AI in 2025
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Humanoid robotics: lots of hype, nothing close to Rosie the Robot in 2025
85% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31
Less than 10% of workforce replaced by AI in 2025
95% confidence · Resolved 2025-12-31