PendingeconomicsConfidence: 70%
The Subscription Reckoning
Inference cost declines are creating an untenable gap between what the service costs to deliver and what subscribers pay. That gap is currently profitable, but competitive pressure from open-source models and new entrants will force it open. When a self-hosted Llama variant can do 80% of what ChatGPT Plus does for free, the $20/month anchor starts eroding.
Source: Future ShockClaimed: Target: 2027-12-31
economicsAIpricingsubscriptions